Beyond the IPCC report

While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change report Global Warming of 1.5℃ released on 6 October has received widespread publicity, other reports less diluted by political compromise deserve more attention and indicate much greater urgency. Foremost among these is the open-access journal article Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene by a world-class team of climate scientists, which shows that even if the carbon emission reductions called for in the Paris Agreement are met, there is a risk of Earth entering what the scientists call “Hothouse Earth” conditions. If this happens, the climate will in the long term stabilise at a global average of 4-5°C higher than pre-industrial temperatures with sea level 10-60 m higher than today. The crucial difference between the IPCC predictions and those of “Hothouse Earth” are that the former ignore feedback processes, despite their well-understood importance universally accepted among Earth system scientists. Further commentary is available from the Stockholm Resilience Centre.